There has been a story of unadulterated, bigoted, piffle recirculating the interwebs this week discussing the supposed massive influx of abortions that would result from the legalization of gay marriage. While laughable and astoundingly picturesque of the state of confirmation bias within many conservative religious sects, this sparked an age old comment in my mind, one that I thought would be an enlightening statistical analysis to the perfection of a perfect God’s perfect creation.
While the logical paradox that is a “gay marriage abortion” may make you cringe with astonishment I feel it should be plainly elaborated here. There is absolutely no way that two gay people can reproduce using any natural or state of the art scientific methods without the introduction of the biological material from an outside third party. With this stated, there is simply no possible way for gay marriage legalization to result in even one more abortion than what would happen under the current legal parameters outlined in the United States judicial system.
The only area where this non correlation can be conceived, heh, is in a slippery slope of morality where gay marriage opens a gate of immorality devouring our nation and ultimately the world. Funny thing is, this is a similar argument to what was used to prevent the slaves from gaining their freedom, women from voting, African Americans from voting, and all the progress of the civil rights movements. Its getting repetitive is it not?
Anyways, back to the statistics. Lets say, barring any nausea as a result, that legalizing gay marriage would end in the reported 900,000 abortions. Sorry for the numbers from here on out, but here we go:
World Population (WP)= 7.125 Billion
Estimated Birth Rate per 1000 People This Year (BR)= 19.15
Average Natural Pregnancy Miscarriage = 10-20% (VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE)
Number of People Estimated to be Born This Year:
[(WP) / 1000 people] x (BR) = # Successful Births
(7,125,000,000 / 1000) x 19.15 = 136,444,000 Successful Births for 2015
Number of Miscarriages: Based on the Number of People Born This Year over the Range of Miscarriage Percentages:
Total Number of Pregnancies (P) with 10% Miscarriage Rate:
(P) – (P x 10%) = 136,444,000 Successful Births
(P) = 136,444,000 /(1-.1) = 151,604,444 Total Pregnancies for 2015
151,604,444 – 136,444,000 = 15,160,444 Miscarriages
Total Number of Pregnancies (P) with 20% Miscarriage Rate:
(P) – (P x 20%) = 136,444,000 Successful Births
(P) = 136,444,000 /(1-.2) = 170,555,000 Total Pregnancies for 2015
170,555,000 – 136,444,000 = 34,111,000 Miscarriages
Thus the number of NATURAL “God given” miscarriages is approximately 15 – 30 million a year.
Even if the ridiculous prediction of 900,000 abortions occurring because of gay marriage were true, God should have to account for his massive and egregious destruction of life through his grace, design, and will. Shouldn’t he?
In the end this turns into an argument about design, the problem of evil, and ultimately pushes God further and further from the personal god of the bible to a first mover deistic persona existing beyond the known limits of the universe. Some say it is unfalsifiable, some say we just need more time to learn what is beyond the universe, but I will say that those numbers do not lie. In the end this is not a post about conclusions or proving anything. I just wished to show you some of the natural numbers and you can interpret those any way you want. Just know that if you say God works in mysterious ways, its going to get nasty in here.